Finding Resilience Amid Irrationality and Global Regime Change

Imagine waking to news alerts on 3 January 2026: U.S. special forces, backed by precision airstrikes from over 150 aircraft launched from 20 bases, descend on Caracas in a lightning operation. Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and his wife, Cilia Flores, are captured in a matter of hours, whisked away to New York to face U.S. federal charges for drug trafficking and terrorism links.

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This isn't a Hollywood script. It's the bold enforcement of the 2025 U.S. National Security Strategy (NSS), which boldly declares "economic security is national security." Framed as a modern "Trump Corollary" to the Monroe Doctrine, the intervention secures vast oil reserves and rare earth minerals like coltan (columbite-tantalite), while expelling Chinese and Russian influence from the Western Hemisphere.

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As explosions lit up the night sky and Maduro's regime crumbled, global markets jolted which immediately resulted in intraday volatility, and risk assets wavered (though they are substantially higher now) reminding us that geopolitics is the unseen force reshaping markets.

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This dramatic event underscores a profound shift I've chronicled since my 2020-2022 writings on pandemic-exposed supply chains: shifting from globalisation's cost-chasing efficiency to a 'fortress mentality' that prioritises security and certainty.

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For Australian high-net-worth (HNW) and ultra-high-net-worth (UHNW) families, this is a strategic reminder. When we consider known risk, it isn't a villain to vanquish. It's a strategic ally for those who plan astutely.

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While no one can predict the future with certainty, I certainly believe that it's plausible that such events continue to accelerate us toward a fragmented, global trade environment where national security and strategic interests influence asset classes.

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In this outlook, I summarise some of the observations I've made recently, infuse them with the latest developments, and try to layer in this geopolitical prism. We'll dissect:

• the sticky inflation era,
• the illusory AI boom,
• fiscal fragilities,
• local regulatory headwinds, and
• actionable investment paths.

My aim? Emphatic clarity to assist with decisions in uncertain times.

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The great fracture and national security: From efficiency to fortresses

The "Great Fracture" (my term for the splintering of global systems into rival spheres) marks the end of unchecked globalisation. We've pivoted from sourcing at the lowest cost worldwide to fortifying supply chains within trusted alliances where certainty trumps pennies. This is policy incarnate, as seen in Venezuela’s upheaval.

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This isn't a new behaviour. We have seen it leading up to, during, and post-world wars. Whilst we may not have world war kinetic style conflict, at least not yet and hopefully never again, major states are certainly competing for strategic resources and the stakes have rarely been higher.

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Consider the motivations: Venezuela's Orinoco Belt holds the world's largest proven oil reserves, over 300 billion barrels, per U.S. Geological Survey estimates, while its coltan deposits, which are critical for electronics, represent a strategic choke point.

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The U.S. operation, involving targeted strikes to neutralise defences before extraction, aligns with the 2025 NSS's mandate to integrate economic vitality with security, emphasising "strength as the best deterrent." Brookings Institution analysts note this as a calculated move to counter China's Belt and Road encroachments in Latin America, where Beijing had invested over $140 billion since 2005.

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The Wall Street Journal reported immediate market reactions:

• Brent crude surged to $85 per barrel amid fears of supply disruptions.
• Rare earth prices ticked up 5% on exclusionary concerns.

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This fracture extends northward. The U.S. hasn’t invaded Greenland but is aggressively investing: In June 2025, the Export-Import Bank committed up to $120 million in financing for Critical Metals Corp.'s Tanbreez project: one of the world's largest rare earth deposits outside China, rich in neodymium and praseodymium for EV magnets and renewables. Reuters highlights CEO Tony Sage's expectation to close offtake deals by Q1 2026, aiming for production by mid-2028.

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The New York Times ties this to broader Arctic strategies, noting Greenland's deposits could reduce U.S. reliance on China, which controls 90% of global rare earth processing. Assets in such "secure perimeters" now fetch premiums. Bloomberg reports a 15-20% valuation uplift for allied mining ventures versus exposed ones.

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In the 'AI age' that we find ourselves, technological prowess will become a gamechanger for companies, for countries, for military. For countries to defend their position and standing in the world, they need the resources to build out and develop AI related technologies. Energy, key commodities, inputs and intellectual property are the enablers for them to do so. For Australian families, the implications ripple home. As a U.S. ally via ANZUS, our mining giants like BHP and Rio Tinto can benefit from friendshoring demand for copper and lithium, with exports to the U.S. up 12% in 2025 per Australian Bureau of Statistics data. Yet, tensions with our top trading partner, China, pose risks. A 2025 Goldman Sachs report warns of potential export curbs, echoing 2020 coal bans. Supply chains for semiconductors (Taiwan tensions) and pharmaceuticals (India dependencies) can create redundancy, inflating costs by 10-15%, as per McKinsey's 2025 global resilience survey. The geopolitical landscape, therefore, has push and pull factors. Australia being both a beneficiary of Aus-China trade, whilst at the same time, being a strategic partner and relying on the U.S. for defence, are at crossroads. If we don't maintain a friendly relationship with China, trade suffers. If we fail to align adequately with the U.S., or don't choose sides, we may see our own safety and security put at risk.

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Portfolio-wise, U.S.-aligned and western infrastructure looks compelling: J.P. Morgan's 2026 outlook emphasises premiums for assets in stable spheres, suggesting allocations to North American energy over Middle Eastern plays. As I reflected in 2022 on friendshoring, resilience outshines efficiency in heated geopolitics.

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One consideration for investors is to stress-test their holdings: What if spheres harden further? The uncomfortable truth: Cold War echoes resound, but with economic arsenals leading the charge.

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Planning demands vigilance. Diversify across alliances, hedge commodity exposures, and monitor fracture lines like the South China Sea. Jamie Dimon, in his 60-page 2025 J.P. Morgan shareholder letter, echoed similar concerns, noting geopolitical tensions with China are foundational to long-term U.S. health, and urged caution amid such uncertainties. While the future is unknowable, one possibility is that these fractures could elevate commodity prices and disrupt emerging market equities, prompting a reevaluation of international allocations. Trade disruptions also impact corporate earnings.

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The new inflationary regime: Structural forces entrench higher baselines

Inflation's resurgence is settling in, driven by structural shifts that defy central bank tweaks. Australia's Consumer Price Index (CPI) climbed 3.8% in the 12 months to October 2025, per the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS), up from 3.6% in September, with the trimmed mean—a core measure excluding volatiles—at 3.3%. Services inflation lingers at 3.9%, rents at 4.2%, medical costs at 5.1%, and travel at 7.1%, reflecting not demand spikes but embedded changes ending four decades of disinflationary globalisation. In 2022 we had a rapid acceleration of rates to adjust for the record levels of support and policy through covid. Although this has subsided, and both inflation and rates have ease, covid taught us that we (each country) needs access to and control of resources when the world is competing for them. This mentality and regime change drives structurally higher costs and inflation.

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Tariffs

The Trump administration's 10-20% baseline wall, rolled out in April 2025 with escalations on Chinese goods, has squeezed corporate margins. FactSet's analysis of Q3 2025 earnings calls shows S&P 500 firms absorbing 50-100 basis points in hits, with companies like Procter & Gamble citing $200 million in added costs.

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Globally, tariffs cost businesses $1.2 trillion in 2025, mostly passed to consumers, per S&P Global Ratings. J.P. Morgan estimates this adds 0.5-1% to U.S. CPI, with ripple effects Down Under via imported goods. Tariffs are simply a way to make domestic production attractive vs. cheaper peers.

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Whilst the impact has been modest so far, they are a higher cost, and ultimately need to be absorbed by the consumer, or by companies in the form of lower margins.

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Onshoring and friendshoring

Relocating manufacturing from low-cost Asia to allies like Mexico or Vietnam hikes expenses—McKinsey calculates 20-30% premiums for U.S. production. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) notes supply-side pressures persist despite rate hikes, as redundant chains replace just-in-time models post-COVID and Ukraine.

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Input owners thrive

Copper, vital for AI data centres and electrification, saw prices rise 15% in 2025 per London Metal Exchange data, with Goldman Sachs forecasting further gains in 2026 amid "supply waves." Rare earths follow suit, with U.S. Geological Survey projecting demand doubling by 2030. Edmond de Rothschild's January 2026 strategy highlights a CAPEX cycle in precious and industrial metals, with copper up 40% in 2025, signalling accelerating investments in rearmament, reindustrialisation, and AI infrastructure.

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This regime challenges 60/40 portfolios

BlackRock's 2026 outlook warns higher inflation erodes bond returns, advocating real assets like infrastructure yielding 4-6% above CPI. My evolution from 2020's recovery optimism to viewing inflation as endemic urges reallocations: Tilt to commodities, inflation-linked bonds, and property with pricing power.

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The New York Times echoes: Structural inflation could average 3-4%, demanding adaptive strategies. Jamie Dimon cautioned in his 2025 shareholder letter (reflecting on 2024) about sticky inflation from government spending, deficits, and supply chain restructuring—themes that remain relevant as U.S. deficits fuel global price pressures. Wall Street consensus sees global growth at 2.6-3.1%, but with recession probabilities around 20-35%, liquidity planning is prudent.

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In Australian equities, inflation could support resource stocks but pressure consumer-facing sectors; internationally, emerging markets may face volatility from trade frictions.

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The AI mirage: Circularity and hidden costs

Smart money's exodus from AI darlings signals cracks in the facade. In Q3 2025, Peter Thiel's Thiel Macro liquidated its entire 537,742-share Nvidia position, valued at $100 million, following SoftBank's $5.8 billion divestment and Michael Burry's bearish puts. Reuters and Morningstar report Nvidia's shares still rose 41% in 2025, outpacing the S&P 500, yet these sales amid $65 billion quarterly revenue forecasts scream caution.

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The culprit? Circular financing, a structure where capital flows in self-reinforcing loops that inflate apparent demand but mask underlying economics. This echoes the dot-com era's vendor financing, where equipment sellers like Nortel lent to buyers who then purchased more gear, creating illusory revenue until models collapsed. In the late 1990s telecom bubble, massive infrastructure build-out—trillions spent on fiber optics and networks to support the nascent internet—led to overcapacity and bankruptcy for pioneers like Global Crossing and WorldCom, as demand failed to materialise for cost recovery. Profits didn't follow first movers; instead, survivors like Verizon capitalised later.

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Today's AI risks similar pitfalls: Nvidia poured $23.7 billion into 59 AI deals in 2025, ballooning to 67 by year-end, per PitchBook and TechCrunch. A prime example is Nvidia's commitment to invest up to $100 billion in OpenAI, announced in September 2025, with funding tied to data center deployments. In return, OpenAI has committed to purchasing Nvidia's chips for its infrastructure needs, effectively recycling Nvidia's investment back into sales for Nvidia. This creates a feedback loop: Nvidia's capital boosts OpenAI's capabilities, driving more chip demand, which justifies higher valuations and further investment. Analysts at Bernstein and Goldman Sachs have flagged this "circular revenue," where investments return as sales, potentially overstating true market demand. NewStreet Research estimates every $10 billion invested generates $35 billion in GPU spend, likening it to "asking your parents to co-sign your mortgage."

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Oracle's involvement adds another layer: In September 2025, Oracle signed a $300 billion, five-year cloud deal with OpenAI to provide computing power for AI training, one of the largest such agreements in history. To fulfill this, Oracle plans to spend around $40 billion on Nvidia chips, including 400,000 high-performance units, as reported by the Financial Times. This triad of Nvidia funding OpenAI, OpenAI contracting Oracle, and Oracle buying Nvidia hardware exemplifies how interdependent deals can amplify perceived growth while raising questions about organic demand.

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"Prompt physics" exposes costs: Each AI query consumes ~0.3 watt-hours, but Jevons Paradox—where efficiency breeds more usage—drives exponential consumption. Named after economist William Stanley Jevons, who observed in 1865 that efficient coal use in engines led to greater overall coal consumption as industries expanded, the paradox applies here: Cheaper, faster AI models lower per-query costs, spurring billions more queries and thus higher total energy use. For instance, efficient LEDs reduced lighting costs, but led to more lights installed worldwide, not less electricity consumed overall, per NPR analyses.

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In AI, Northeastern University experts note that generative tools' efficiency could similarly boost demand, potentially doubling data centre energy needs by 2030, per The Conversation. Oracle's AI cloud margins languish at 14-16%, versus 70% for legacy software, per internal docs and Morningstar, suggesting subsidisation over sustainability. Sequoia's "AI's $600B Question" now pegs a $500-600 billion revenue gap to justify $364 billion Big Tech capex in 2025.

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Forbes notes Nvidia's earnings dispel some fears, but bubble signals persist. Howard Marks, whom I greatly admire, in his December 2025 Oaktree memo "Is It a Bubble?", questions AI hype, comparing it to dot-com exuberance with FOMO, suspect deals, and overbuilding, though noting differences like revenues and established players. He advises prudence: Avoid all-in or all-out, use equity not debt for speculation, and maintain safety margins amid uncertainties.

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As in my private credit dialogues, overabundance breeds misallocation and positions for unwind with diversified tech exposure. Goldman Sachs' 2026 outlook sees AI as a catalyst but warns of complexity from uneven adoption and capex risks. For U.S. equities, AI could drive gains but valuations suggest selectivity; internationally, emerging markets like China may benefit from AI supply chains but face geopolitical drags.

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Macro and fiscal risks: The compromised risk-free rate

Fiscal foundations creak under unprecedented loads. U.S. debt surpassed $38 trillion in early 2026, per Forbes and the Bipartisan Policy Center, with annual interest eclipsing $1 trillion—triple 2020 levels and outstripping defence. The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget warns this "new norm" crowds out investments, with debt at 100% of GDP. Tail risks loom: Japanese repatriation as yields rise could drain U.S. Treasury liquidity, per J.P. Morgan's Eye on the Market.

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Private credit, lauded in my 2022-2023 writings for juicy spreads, now deteriorates. Data from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) April 2024 Global Financial Stability Report shows one-third of borrowers have interest costs exceeding earnings, with eroding covenants. Australia's $188-200 billion market exhibits capitalised interest and inconsistent defaults, per ASIC. In my podcast with Oaktree's Armen Panossian, he forecasted 2026-2027 distress cycles amid crowding.

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Bank outlooks temper optimism: BlackRock sees 2.8% global growth in 2026, AI-driven, but cautions on bond diversification. J.P. Morgan assigns 35% U.S. recession odds, sticky inflation persisting. I remain guarded—geopolitical and fiscal tails could upend forecasts. Shift to real assets with tangible collateral. The risk-free rate's compromise demands diversified liquidity sources—echoing post-2008 lessons. Jamie Dimon highlighted in his 2025 shareholder letter (reflecting on 2024) how deficits and stimulus fuel economy but lead to sticky inflation and higher rates, a theme persisting with Wall Street noting 20-35% recession probability. Neuberger Berman's 2026 themes stress macro environment with risks like debt, urging private markets for resilience. For fixed income, higher yields offer income but recession risks favour quality; alternatives like private credit may see distress opportunities.

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Embracing stability: Opportunities for strong, reliable returns in 2026

In light of the risks outlined, it's worth considering that 2026 could still deliver strong returns, particularly through a focus on income-generating and real assets that prioritise stability over speculation. While tail risks loom, a well-constructed portfolio emphasising reliable cash flows can achieve high single to early double-digit returns from "stable assets," providing both income and capital preservation. More crucially, this approach builds optionality, maintaining liquidity to pivot into higher-risk opportunities if corrections or volatility arise from geopolitical flares, fiscal strains, or AI unwinds, allowing well-positioned investors to remain largely insulated.

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Some of the key areas I am considering:

• Income assets and investment grade fixed income: With yields elevated, short-duration investment grade bonds offer attractive carry, potentially 4-6% above inflation, as per BlackRock, blending safety with income.
• Real assets like infrastructure and real estate: Contractual revenues in energy, transport, or data centres provide inflation hedges. Goldman Sachs highlights CAPEX-driven premiums, targeting 8-12% returns.
• Commodities or commodity producers: Owners of inputs like copper or gold benefit from structural demand; J.P. Morgan forecasts gold at $4,753, with producers leveraging prices for 10-15% yields.
• Private credit: We prefer to stick to the best, most tenured operators avoiding the "new thing"; Oaktree's distress focus could yield 9-12% amid cycles, per IMF insights on borrower vulnerabilities.
• Royalties and transport leasing/financing (ABS): Royalties in mining or energy deliver steady streams; transport ABS (aircraft, shipping) offer tangible collateral with 7-10% returns below replacement cost.
• Japan as a value play on equities with yield: The "Berkshire Thesis" persists with low P/E ratios, TSE reforms boosting efficiency, and Sogo Shosha conglomerates yield 8-10% (J.P. Morgan), blending value and income in a secure sphere.

This combination fosters resilience, generating reliable returns while preserving capital for opportunistic deployment, aligning with generational wealth preservation amid uncertainty.

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The provocative reckoning: Will you fracture or forge ahead?

Let's be optimistic, but not irrationally exuberant. We stand at a pivotal global crossroads, where AI promises to revolutionise productivity yet risks spawning mass redundancies, unemployment, and vast overcapacity from billions in unchecked spending, echoing the telecom bubble's frenzy where trillions funnelled into fibre-optic empires collapsed under bankruptcies, leaving pioneers penniless while latecomers reaped the rewards.

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Geopolitics simmers dangerously: We're entrenched in a 'cold war' of economic skirmishes, but kinetic flames erupt in Venezuela, Russia-Ukraine, Iran's bombings, Israel-Palestine, China-Taiwan standoffs, and brewing hostilities toward Japan. Post-COVID, the ironclad focus on national security for key inputs and supply chains endures—a robust thesis demanding your attention. Valuations scream extremes across well-known pockets, yet paradoxically, premium, battle-tested stables beckon with irresistible yields.

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For any cricket fans, Australia is about to clinch another Ashes: not by swinging for the fences, but through gritty, calculated strokes—defensive blocks wearing down bowlers, cheeky singles stealing runs, and risk-savvy partnerships that grind England into the dust. Investments in 2026 have clear parallels and the key question is this: will you play the long game, or gamble it all on a few flashy swings?

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Note/disclaimer: the above opinions are expressly my own and are not intended to be relied on as financial advice. You should always consult your own financial adviser to account for your specific circumstances before relying on the thoughts, opinions or information expressed.

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