The Million Dollar Trade I Missed and Why it is Not Too Late

As an investor, there are a few decisions that really stick with you both the ones you make and the ones you don’t. Looking back, one of my biggest regrets is the million dollar trade I missed in not buying Bitcoin in 2012.

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I remember it like it was yesterday, I was catching up with an old mate over a few beers and we stumbled on to the topic of this new thing he had been leveraging into called bitcoin which was trading at around $100 at the time (it is currently trading at 1000x this). He was gloating that he had already made a few times his money and that I do the same. He tried to explain the concept to me, but it didn’t make sense, how can someone just create a new currency?

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I didn’t take him seriously plus Bitcoin had already returned multiple times so surely, I had missed the boat anyway. I had just completed my level 1 CFA exam and Bitcoin was not in the textbook, I thought there was a very high chance he would lose his money, so I just rubbished the idea, and we moved on to the next topic.

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That year I relocated to Brisbane for work, and I didn’t really think of bitcoin again until a few years later when I learned that the very same friend had leveraged his credit cards to go all into Bitcoin and was now a multi-millionaire. He had left his job to go and travel the world, with his net worth skyrocketing from near zero to be measured in 10s of millions... It wasn’t until about 2020 when I re-engaged with this friend and started doing some more independent research on Bitcoin as an asset class that finally it clicked, I was determined I was not going to make that mistake again.

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In this article, I want to walk you through why I believe Bitcoin still represents one of the most compelling investment opportunities in modern history. I’ll explore why it’s fundamentally different from other cryptocurrencies, why the term “cryptocurrency” is misleading when it comes to Bitcoin, and why the catalysts for Bitcoin’s growth over the past year make it a serious contender in any investment portfolio. I’ll share some industry price targets and why I believe Bitcoin has the potential to reach far higher levels in the coming years.

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WHAT IS BITCOIN?

Bitcoin, created in 2008 by the pseudonymous Satoshi Nakamoto, is the world’s first decentralized digital asset. But what does that really mean? At its core, Bitcoin is not just another currency, it’s a revolutionary technology. It operates on a decentralized network that is free from government control, making it immune to the monetary policies that govern traditional fiat currencies. Bitcoin is also the only cryptocurrency with a fixed supply cap of 21 million coins, a critical aspect that creates scarcity, and thus, value.

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Unlike fiat currencies, which can be printed in unlimited quantities, Bitcoin’s supply is predetermined. This fixed supply is one of its most important features, and it’s why Bitcoin is often referred to as “digital gold.” As the world increasingly moves toward digital economies, Bitcoin is emerging as a trusted store of value.

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In thinking about Bitcoin, I encourage those of you struggling with the concept to just think of Bitcoin as digital gold and not a currency. Many people can’t get their head around why the price of gold is as high as it is as it is simply a pretty rock. If we did not speculate on the price of gold (dig it up, melt it down and put it into gold bars and then store these gold bars in heavily fortified safe rooms all around the world) it’s clear that the price of gold would be a fraction of what it is today. So, the price of gold is a social construct, we have all agreed that it is a store of value and people are comfortable keeping large portions of their wealth stored in gold bars.

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The problem with gold as a store of value is that it is very hard to move, it is hard to divide, and it is expensive to store. Once you get your head around using a pretty rock as a store of value then it is not a huge leap of faith to think that once a large enough group of people believe Bitcoin to be a store of value, it will/ has started to accrue value also and many argue that it does a much better job as a store of value (hence why the price has gone up for 13 years).

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This may all sound like nonsense, however there was also a point in time when our ancestors did not know what gold was, these people could not understand why they should accept a gold rock as payment instead of something they could eat like a chicken or something that could keep them warm like fur. I believe we are on the cusp of a monumental shift in technology that will be well studied for generations to come.

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WHY BITCOIN IS DIFFERENT FROM OTHER CRYPTOCURRENCIES

I’ve heard the argument that Bitcoin is just one of many cryptocurrencies, but that couldn’t be further from the truth. While there are thousands of “altcoins’’ in existence, Bitcoin remains the dominant cryptocurrency by market capitalization, liquidity, and recognition. It has the longest track record, and more importantly, it has a community of developers, miners, and institutional investors supporting it, there is no centralised management team profiting from the success of the network and there is no one person in charge. It is the only crypto asset to be classified as a commodity by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).  

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Other cryptocurrencies, such as Ethereum, Solana, or Cardano, may offer smart contract capabilities or faster transaction speeds, but none of them have the same level of security, decentralization, and recognition as Bitcoin. Bitcoin’s blockchain is the most secure, time-tested, and proven in the world. Because it operates on a fixed set of rules that cannot be altered or manipulated, Bitcoin is much more stable than many of its counterparts and is the “gold standard” for the asset class itself. That is not to say I don’t think that money can be made in the others as I believe there is huge opportunity in select altcoins, today I will only dwell on Bitcoin.

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WHY THE TERM "CRYPTOCURRENCY" IS MISLEADING

When people hear “cryptocurrency,” they often think of Bitcoin as just another form of money. But calling Bitcoin a “currency” is somewhat misleading. The term cryptocurrency was coined to describe digital assets that use encryption to secure transactions, but Bitcoin’s primary value proposition lies not in its use as a currency but as a store of value.

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Bitcoin is not yet a widely accepted method of payment on the same scale as traditional currencies. Its true power comes from its scarcity only 21 million coins will ever be mined—and its decentralized nature. These characteristics make Bitcoin a hedge against inflation and a potential safe-haven asset, much like gold.

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This is why many people now refer to Bitcoin as “digital gold.” Just like gold, Bitcoin holds value because it is finite and difficult to produce. However, unlike gold, Bitcoin is easier to store, transfer, and access across borders. It’s a truly global asset that operates outside traditional financial systems.

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THE CATALYSTS FOR BITCOIN'S GROWTH

Over the past year, we’ve seen several significant catalysts that have driven Bitcoin’s price higher and solidified its position as a mainstream investment asset. These catalysts show no signs of slowing down, and in fact, many of them are accelerating.

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1. Institutional Adoption

Perhaps the biggest catalyst for Bitcoin’s growth is its increasing adoption by institutional investors. Companies like MicroStrategy, Tesla, and Square have made substantial Bitcoin purchases, signalling that the cryptocurrency is now viewed as a legitimate store of value by institutional players.

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A recent analysis by Bernstein’s lead crypto analyst stated that Bitcoin ETFs only saw ~$4 billion in outflows in February and March (there is circa $114bn total in Bitcoin ETFs), and selling appears to have eased in April. He goes on to say that “Close to ~80 corporates world over now have adopted Bitcoin as a treasury asset,” with firms like MicroStrategy (NASDAQ:MSTR) continuing to buy in huge volumes. Michael Saylor has said several times ‘I’ll be buying the top forever, when it is at 1 million, I’ll be buying... when its 2 million I’ll be buying ...and when its 10 million I’ll be buying.’’ Berstein also believe that we could see firms allocate up to $330 billion to bitcoin over the next 5 years.

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Separately, MicroStrategy have recently announced that they plan to buy another $80 bn in Bitcoin on market. Micro strategy is not the only Bitcoin treasury player in town with new entrant Twenty One Capital (founded by Tether Founder and crypto exchange company Bitfinex) launching with 42,000 Bitcoin at launch.

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This is significant because institutional adoption brings with it not only capital but also credibility. Large investment firms, hedge funds, and even publicly traded companies are now holding Bitcoin as part of their balance sheets. This transition from fringe asset to mainstream investment marks a major milestone for Bitcoin.

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Morgan Stanley along with Merril Lynch, Wells Fargo and UBS plan to soon offer bitcoin and crypto products to E-Trade clients which will further open access to mums and dads.

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Locally, AMP became the first Australian Industry super fund to invest in bitcoin with an allocation of around AUD$27,000,000. Whilst this only represents a very small proportion of the total fund it is a monumental line in the sand for institutional adoption and I believe will open the floodgates for other superfunds to not only follow but increase allocations from here.

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The table below shows the number of large institutions and where they sit with allowing their clients to invest in bitcoin and other crypto assets. Only 5 of the institutions on the table allow unrestricted assets but this is quickly changing and could see yet another huge wall of capital gush into crypto markets.

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Institutional adoption is the game changer for the price of bitcoin as they have been largely left on the sidelines until now, but they control the vast majority of global capital so if we see continued meaningful flows from institutional capital (which we are starting to see), it could drive the price materially higher.

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Fidelity Canada (Fidelity is one of the largest and most respected institutions in the world) has led the charge into institutional adoption when they started to include Bitcoin as part of their conservative, balanced and high growth multi-asset ETFs, my bet is they won’t be the last!

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2. US State & Federal Governments Considering Adoption

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The table above shows where a few of the most advanced US States are at in allowing their treasury departments to hold Bitcoin on balance sheet. Arizona was the first to make a bold move, with its state senate passing a proposal to allocate 10% of state funds into Bitcoin. Although ultimately vetoed by Governor Katie Hobbs, the fact that such a measure advanced to the senate floor marked a significant milestone in mainstream political consideration of Bitcoin as a treasury asset.

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Hot on Arizona’s heels, New Hampshire has now gone one step further. Just this week, it became the first U.S. state to authorise a strategic reserve for public funds that includes digital assets. Under the newly passed bill, the state treasurer is permitted to allocate up to 5% of public funds from the general fund and other authorised sources into both precious metals and digital assets with a market capitalisation exceeding $500 billion. This includes Bitcoin.

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New Hampshire’s State Treasury currently manages approximately $2.13 billion in liquid public funds, which means up to $100 million could now be allocated to a Bitcoin reserve.

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The US already owns around 200,000 Bitcoin and on March 6, 2025, President Trump signed an executive order for the establishment of a strategic crypto reserve and United States digital asset stockpile. The recently proposed U.S. Bitcoin Reserve represents a pivotal shift in how governments may begin to treat digital assets as strategic, long-term stores of value. Much like traditional reserves in gold or foreign currencies, this reserve is intended to serve as a sovereign-grade asset base. Initially funded by the Treasury’s existing holdings of forfeited Bitcoin, the reserve may be expanded using budget-neutral mechanisms, according to Gemini Trust. Crucially, these coins will not be sold. In fact, the Treasury is exploring pathways to acquire additional Bitcoin without placing any burden on taxpayers, as noted by Kraken.

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Alongside this, a separate U.S. Digital Asset Stockpile has been established to manage forfeited assets such as Ether, USDC, and other cryptocurrencies. Unlike the Bitcoin Reserve, this stockpile may be subject to active stewardship strategies including potential liquidation depending on market and legal considerations. No new purchases will be made for this stockpile beyond what has already been confiscated, according to reports from CCN.com and Cointelegraph but it again shows a drastic change in rhetoric from the prior government. This bifurcated approach reflects a growing recognition of Bitcoin’s unique role among digital assets and signals that the U.S. government may now view Bitcoin less as a speculative risk and more as a strategic asset class in its own right.

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China is the second largest sovereign owner of bitcoin with over 190,000 bitcoin then the UK & Ukraine after that. The Abu Dhabi Wealth fund also recently purchased $460,000,000 of bitcoin earlier in the year

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2. Growing Recognition as a Hedge Against Inflation

As governments around the world continue their policy of printing money, inflation has become a growing concern. Bitcoin’s fixed supply and decentralized nature make it an attractive hedge against inflation. Unlike fiat currencies, which are subject to the whims of central banks, Bitcoin’s supply is capped at 21 million coins meaning it cannot be devalued by printing more.

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As inflation rises, more people are recognizing Bitcoin as a store of value. It’s often compared to gold in this respect, and it’s becoming increasingly popular among those seeking to protect their wealth from the erosion caused by inflationary policies. This is particularly evident in countries like Argentina and Turkey where inflation is out of control and people are moving their cash into bitcoin to protect its value.

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3. Technological Developments

Bitcoin is constantly evolving, with advancements in its underlying technology making it more scalable, efficient, and secure. The Lightning Network, for example, has enabled faster and cheaper Bitcoin transactions, making it more viable as a payment method. These technological innovations are crucial to Bitcoin’s future growth, as they make the cryptocurrency more accessible and functional in a world that’s increasingly reliant on digital solutions.

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Additionally, the broader cryptocurrency ecosystem is benefiting from these innovations, as blockchain technology continues to gain traction. Bitcoin is at the forefront of this revolution, and as its technology continues to improve, so too does its potential to disrupt traditional financial systems.

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4. Increased Regulatory Clarity

The regulatory environment for cryptocurrencies has been murky at best, but in recent months, we’ve seen greater clarity emerging. Governments around the world are starting to develop clearer frameworks for how cryptocurrencies should be regulated. This is important because it allows institutional investors to feel more comfortable about entering the market, knowing that there are clear rules in place.

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The US has moved from taking a very anti crypto stance to having a very crypto friendly SEC. They recently moved to remove SAB 21 which again was a pivotal moment in the history of bitcoin. SAB 121 was a controversial accounting rule issued by the U.S. SEC that required institutions holding digital assets on behalf of clients to list them as liabilities on their balance sheets effectively discouraging banks from offering crypto custody services. Its repeal in 2025 signals a major regulatory shift, clearing the way for traditional financial institutions to securely custody Bitcoin and other digital assets without punitive capital treatment.

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As Bitcoin continues to grow in mainstream popularity, it will become even more attractive to institutional investors, who need regulatory certainty to protect their investments. This growing regulatory clarity will likely lead to increased adoption and higher prices.

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5. Bitcoin’s Halving Events

Bitcoin’s “Halving” events, which occur approximately every four years, continue to be a key catalyst for price appreciation. During these events, the reward for mining Bitcoin is cut in half, reducing the number of new coins entering circulation. This makes Bitcoin more scarce and, in theory, more valuable.

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Historically, Bitcoin’s Halving events have been followed by price rallies. While past performance is not indicative of future results, it’s clear that the reduction in supply, combined with growing demand, has driven significant price increases after previous Halving.

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6. Global Money Supply Increase

Looking ahead to second half 2025, it’s clear that fiscal spending from the world’s major economies most notably the United States and China is set to increase. In Washington, that means more capital directed toward infrastructure, clean energy, and tech competitiveness. In Beijing, stimulus looks to be focused on propping up the property sector and boosting domestic consumption.

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These are not small moves. They will be debt-financed, and as a result, we’re likely to see a further expansion of the M2 money supply essentially, more liquidity in the system. Historically, when liquidity rises, risk assets catch a bid. That includes equities, real assets and yes, Bitcoin.

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Bitcoin has increasingly been viewed as a hedge against monetary debasement. When central banks and governments expand the balance sheet, capital looks for scarce, unmanipulable assets. That’s where Bitcoin comes in. It’s hard-coded, capped at 21 million, and doesn’t care about QE, QT, or election cycles.

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If the anticipated liquidity wave does arrive, I would expect Bitcoin to benefit meaningfully. We’ve seen this playbook before.

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7. Federal Reserve Easing

The U.S. Federal Reserve’s policy of quantitative tightening where it systematically reduces the assets on its balance sheet has been a major headwind for markets over the past few years. Liquidity has dried up, and risk assets, including Bitcoin, have felt the pressure.

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But that’s likely to shift in 2025.

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While full-blown quantitative easing may still be a way off, the expectation is that QT will come to an end. That alone would mark a meaningful change in the market environment. By pausing QT, the Fed stops draining liquidity from the system a prerequisite for any broad-based recovery in asset prices.

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Layer on falling interest rates also expected across most major economies and we could be heading into a much more accommodative macro setting. Lower borrowing costs fuel investment appetite, and historically, Bitcoin has thrived in these kinds of environments. When capital is cheap and plentiful, investors start looking for asymmetric opportunities and Bitcoin consistently sits near the top of that list.

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The signals are lining up: advanced economies cutting rates, liquidity returning, and U.S. monetary policy shifting from restrictive to neutral, if not supportive. If the Fed does ease policy this year, it would likely be one of the most important tailwinds for Bitcoin and could help trigger the next leg of institutional inflows.

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8. Increased Public Awareness and Accessibility

Bitcoin is becoming more mainstream by the day. Platforms like PayPal, Square, and Cash App have made it easier than ever for individuals to buy and sell Bitcoin. These platforms along with the approval of the bitcoin ETF and other major financial institutions now assisting their clients with crypto services have significantly lowered the barriers to entry for everyday consumers, allowing them to participate in the Bitcoin market with ease.

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As public awareness continues to grow, more people are likely to start investing in Bitcoin. And with greater access, more people will begin to use Bitcoin as part of their long-term investment strategy. This growing adoption, coupled with increasing mainstream media coverage, will only drive Bitcoin’s value higher.

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9. Mainstream Bank Adoption

After the repeal of SAB 121 (established in 2022 mandating recognizing liability for crypto custodial obligations and corresponding asset at fair value and forcing them to hold sufficient collateral), this now means banks have the green light to custody these assets.  

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10.) Regulatory momentum around Stablecoins

Gautam Chhugani from Bernstein’s digital asset team expects that widespread adoption of Stablecoin technology within banks and fintech’s for payment use cases beyond crypto capital markets, especially in remittances and b2b payments.

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PRICE TARGETS FOR BITCOIN

Given the current positive catalysts and the ongoing developments in the Bitcoin ecosystem, it’s not unreasonable to expect significant price appreciation in the coming years. Personally, I believe Bitcoin could reach several milestones in the near future (5-10 years). Here are just a few of the price predictions out there for bitcoin at the moment.

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Ark Invests (Cathie Wood) bear case is price target 500k by 2030, base case is $1,200,000 and bull is $2,500,000.

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As at this morning, 9/5/2025 Bitcoin has just surpassed USD$100,000 again which makes it the 6^th largest asset in the world, bigger than google in market cap. This has all happened without the retail trader’s participation like they have in previous cycles as evident by the number of google searches for bitcoin being lower than they were in prior crypto bear markets.  

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They say the only guarantees in life are death and taxes and this is no exception, no one can guarantee you that you will make money by buying anything and as with every other asset class with a compelling investment case, things can always go very pear shaped. Buying bitcoin is no exception it is not without risks; you need to be prepared for huge swings in price also to the downside if history is anything to go by.

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I believe bitcoin’s biggest risks lie in the intersection of regulation, technology, and market maturity. Regulatory risk remains the most immediate and potentially disruptive. While recent U.S. developments including the repeal of SAB 121 and political momentum toward pro-crypto policies are encouraging, Bitcoin still operates in a legal grey zone in many jurisdictions. A sudden shift in regulatory tone, especially from major economies like the U.S. or the EU, could impact custody, taxation, exchange access, or even the legal right to own or use Bitcoin. Governments may also view Bitcoin as a threat to sovereign monetary policy and attempt to suppress or disincentivize its adoption, particularly if capital begins flowing out of fiat systems at scale. This does not look likely given the momentum in the US at the moment, but it is still a risk.

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On the technical front, Bitcoin's long-term security model could face existential threats from emerging technologies such as quantum computing. If quantum breakthroughs outpace cryptographic defences, Bitcoin’s foundational trust mechanism private key security could be compromised. Additionally, Bitcoin's low transaction throughput and reliance on off-chain solutions like the Lightning Network present scalability challenges. If Bitcoin fails to evolve into a more efficient payment system while remaining volatile and energy-intensive, it risks being viewed purely as a speculative asset rather than a viable financial infrastructure. These risks underscore the need for careful position sizing and long-term horizon thinking when considering Bitcoin as part of a diversified portfolio.

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Looking back at the million-dollar opportunity I missed, I’ve learned that Bitcoin’s true potential was never about catching a quick price spike it’s about understanding the broader revolution that’s happening. Bitcoin is transforming the financial landscape, and those who recognize its value early will be the ones who benefit the most and many experts are still saying it is incredibly early in the history of bitcoin.

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I won’t make the same mistake again. Bitcoin isn’t just a speculative trade; it’s a fundamental shift in the way we think about money, value, and financial sovereignty. The catalysts are in place, and as Bitcoin continues to gain mainstream acceptance. When I hear people say ï think i missed the boat” I remind them that the people buying Amazon at $2, $9, $16 and so on all probably thought they had missed the boat. When you look back in hindsight these all represented extremely compelling entry points and the same could be said for any major piece of technology in the past 20 years. However, in my view the bitcoin market may well be much larger.

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We have been talking to clients about bitcoin for over 5 years and have watched the asset class evolve from a largely volatile and hugely speculative asset to an asset that is now being seriously considered as digital gold by the US government which I believe now demands our attention.

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It is still a hugely volatile asset class and although I have outlined my thesis above, my personal view may be wrong. If you are considering investing, it is prudent to treat Bitcoin as a small portion of your portfolio. As an example, if we allocate 1% to bitcoin then the worst-case scenario is your portfolio loses 1% as worst case. In my view, Bitcoin offers cheap optionality, with potentially unlimited upside or multiples on a relatively small amount of capital at risk. We do not recommend allocating large portions of your portfolio to Bitcoin and never will, as diversification is always paramount. Fortunately for our growth clients Bitcoin has made a very meaningful difference to returns since inception.

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If you would like guidance regarding digital assets or Bitcoin as an investment allocation, please reach out and we can discuss your personal circumstances and allocate accordingly (or not).

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Until next time,

Tim.